ARIMA-BASED ANALYSIS OF SMALL BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF SURKHANDARYA REGION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20390480Keywords:
small business; Agriculture; Regional economy; ARIMA model; Time series analysis; Forecasting; Entrepreneurship; Surkhandarya region; Agricultural development; Uzbekistan.Abstract
Small business entities play an important role in ensuring sustainable agricultural development and increasing
regional economic activity in Uzbekistan. In recent years, particular attention has been paid to supporting entrepreneurship
in the agricultural sector, improving employment opportunities, and enhancing food security. This study aims to analyze
and forecast the role of small business activity in the agricultural sector of Surkhandarya region using ARIMA time series
models.
The research is based on regional statistical data covering the period from 2010 to 2024. The study applies econometric
and time series analysis methods, including stationarity testing and ARIMA forecasting techniques, to evaluate the
dynamics of small business activity in agriculture. The findings indicate that small business entities have become one
of the key drivers of agricultural production and regional economic growth in Surkhandarya region. The forecasting
results also demonstrate a stable upward trend in the contribution of small businesses to agricultural development in the
coming years. The practical significance of the study lies in providing analytical recommendations for improving regional
agricultural policy, supporting entrepreneurship, and strengthening the role of small businesses in ensuring sustainable
economic development.
References
Schumpeter J.A. The Theory of Economic Development. – Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1934. – 255 p.
Drucker P.F. Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Practice and Principles. – New York: Harper & Row Publishers, 1985.
– 277 p.
Todaro M.P., Smith S.C. Economic Development. – 12th ed. – Boston: Pearson Education, 2015. – 861 p.
Colman D., Young T. Principles of Agricultural Economics: Markets and Prices in Less Developed Countries. –
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989. – 324 p.
Box G.E.P., Jenkins G.M., Reinsel G.C. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. – 5th ed. – Hoboken: Wiley,
– 712 p.
Zainalov J.R. Kichik biznes va tadbirkorlikni rivojlantirishning iqtisodiy mexanizmlari. – Toshkent: Iqtisodiyot, 2019. –
b.
Rasulov Z.D. Hududiy iqtisodiyotda tadbirkorlik faoliyatining statistik tahlili. – Toshkent: Fan, 2021. – 214 b.
Aliyeva S. Kichik tadbirkorlik subyektlarini institutsional qo‘llab-quvvatlash yo‘nalishlari // Iqtisodiyot va innovatsion
texnologiyalar. – Toshkent, 2020. – №4. – B. 55–63.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 ECONOSCITECH INTEGRATION
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
