MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN UZBEKISTAN: A TIME-SERIES ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS AND SCENARIO FORECAST FOR 2026–2027
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21306259Keywords:
industrial production, macroeconomic determinants, foreign direct investment, inflation, OLS regression, cointegration, scenario forecasting, Uzbekistan.Abstract
This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of industrial development in Uzbekistan,
namely the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price inflation (INF), foreign direct
investment (FDI), and the Central Bank’s policy interest rate (IR), using official annual data for 2019–2024.
The growth rate of industrial production (IP) is used as the dependent variable. A multiple linear regression
model estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) is complemented by Pearson correlation analysis and the
Engle–Granger residual-based cointegration test. On this basis, a three-scenario forecast for 2026–2027 is
developed. The estimates indicate that FDI (β = +0.412) and GDP growth (β = +0.318) are the strongest positive
determinants of industrial production, whereas inflation (β = −0.267) and the policy interest rate (β = −0.183)
exert a negative influence. Given the small sample size (n = 6), the results are interpreted as exploratory rather
than confirmatory, and the study limitations are explicitly discussed. Under the baseline scenario, industrial
production growth is projected at 7.4% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027.
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