REGIONAL INTERDEPENDENCIES AND CROSS-BORDER DYNAMICS: ASSESSING THE INFLUENCE OF NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UZBEKISTAN’S TOURISM SECTOR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21370203Keywords:
regional interdependencies, cross-border tourism, Central Asia, Uzbekistan, tourism cooperation, panel regression, sustainable tourism policy.Abstract
This study investigates the extent to which Uzbekistan’s tourism sector is shaped by regional
interdependencies with its five neighbouring countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
and Afghanistan. Drawing on annual data from 2010 to 2024, the research employs a mixed-method design
that integrates panel regression analysis with a qualitative policy review. The quantitative findings reveal that
cross-border trade intensity, visa liberalisation, transport connectivity, and formal tourism cooperation have a
statistically significant positive impact on inbound tourist arrivals to Uzbekistan, while exchange-rate volatility
exerts a mild negative effect. The results confirm the existence of a gravity-type spillover mechanism within
Central Asia’s tourism network, suggesting that stronger regional linkages enhance collective competitiveness.
The qualitative findings further indicate that policy coordination and infrastructure harmonisation remain key
to converting geographic proximity into sustainable growth. The study contributes to the literature by providing
one of the first empirical models to quantify cross-border tourism effects in Central Asia and offers actionable
recommendations for developing joint visa schemes, integrated transport corridors, and regional branding
strategies aligned with UNWTO and SDG 8.9 priorities.
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