THE ROLE OF FOREIGN TRADE IN SHAPING SUSTAINABLE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE REGIONS OF UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This paper examines how the market theory of foreign trade—comparative advantage, factor
endowments, and diversification-based new trade theory—helps explain the factors driving sustainable regional
development across all fourteen administrative regions of Uzbekistan. Long-term statistical series covering
2015–2025 are used to trace the trajectory of the country’s foreign trade turnover, exports, and imports, while
a composite Foreign Trade Development Index is constructed using objectively derived coefficient-of-variation
weights applied to three verifiable indicators: export volume, foreign trade turnover, and the export-to-import
coverage ratio. The results show that Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover expanded from approximately USD
33.8 billion in 2018 to a preliminary USD 81.2 billion in 2025, with exports more than doubling over the same
period, while the export-to-import coverage ratio remained structurally below unity throughout the period. To
assess how these national gains are distributed territorially, a Herfindahl–Hirschman-type Regional Trade
Concentration Index (HHI) is calculated across all fourteen regions using official region-level foreign trade data
for January–October 2023 and January–October 2024. The computed HHI remained essentially unchanged
between the two periods—2,778 and 2,781, respectively, on a 10,000-point scale—placing Uzbekistan’s
regional foreign trade structure within the highly concentrated range. This concentration largely reflects the
comparatively high share of Tashkent City, which alone accounts for approximately half of the nationally
distributed regional turnover, while regions with relatively limited industrial and logistics capacity and stronger
agricultural specialisation, such as Surkhandarya, Syrdarya, and the Republic of Karakalpakstan, each account
for approximately one per cent or less. The findings support the market-theory proposition that comparativeadvantage-
led export growth is a necessary but insufficient condition for sustainable regional development.
Complementary regional infrastructure, export diversification, and governance measures are therefore required
across regions located farther from major trade and logistics hubs, rather than focusing on a single case region,
to translate national growth in foreign trade activity into balanced territorial outcomes. Policy recommendations
are proposed for strengthening regional export capacity, diversifying the geography of trade, and reducing both
the persistent national trade deficit and the regional concentration of trade gains.