ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF RESOURCE USE EFFICIENCY IN THE AGRICULTURE OF THE REPUBLIC OF KARAKALPAKSTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21639328Keywords:
agriculture, resource potential, efficient use of resources, econometric modeling, Cobb– Douglas function, correlation and regression analysis, ARIMA model, forecasting, land resources, water resources, investment.Abstract
This article examines the identification of the main resource factors affecting the development of
agricultural production in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, the econometric assessment of their impact on the
dependent variable, and the forecasting of prospective trends in the sector’s development. Gross agricultural
output was selected as the dependent variable, while the area of irrigated land, water resources, agricultural
machinery, labor resources, and investment were selected as the main explanatory factors. The impact of
these factors on agricultural production was assessed using correlation and regression analysis and the Cobb–
Douglas production function. Elasticity coefficients reflecting the degree of influence of resource factors on
production outcomes were determined. In addition, the ARIMA model was used to forecast future trends in the
dynamics of gross agricultural output. The research results provide a basis for developing scientific and practical
recommendations aimed at ensuring the sustainable development of agricultural production in the Republic
of Karakalpakstan, improving the efficient use of limited land and water resources, directing investment and
technical resources toward priority areas, and increasing the economic efficiency of the agricultural sector
References
Box G. E. P., Jenkins G. M., Reinsel G. C., Ljung G. M. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 5th
ed. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2015. 720 p. ISBN 978-1-118-67502-1.
Coelli T. J., Prasada Rao D. S., O’Donnell C. J., Battese G. E. An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity
Analysis. 2nd ed. New York: Springer, 2005. 349 p. DOI: 10.1007/b136381.
Debertin D. L. Agricultural Production Economics. 2nd ed. [S. l.]: CreateSpace Independent Publishing
Platform, 2012. ISBN 978-1-4699-6064-7.
Ghoshal P., Goswami B. Cobb-Douglas Production Function for Measuring Efficiency in Indian Agriculture:
A Region-wise Analysis // Economic Affairs. 2017. Vol. 62, No. 4. P. 573–579. DOI: 10.5958/0976-
2017.00069.9.
Tilman D., Cassman K. G., Matson P. A., Naylor R., Polasky S. Agricultural Sustainability and Intensive
Production Practices // Nature. 2002. Vol. 418, No. 6898. P. 671–677. DOI: 10.1038/nature01014.
R.M. Shikhiev. Comprehensive modeling approaches in forecasting and managing agricultural production
in Karakalpakstan. Bulletin of KSU named after Berdakh. No. 3 (70) 2025 pp. 138-141.
R.M. Shikhiev. Analysis and forecast of the resource potential of agriculture in the Republic of Karakalpakstan.
“AGRO ILM” journal No. 5 [117], 2025 170-172 p.
R.M. Shikhiev. Econometric modeling of agricultural development in the Republic of Karakalpakstan.
Scientific and practical agro-economic journal “Agroekonomika.” 3 (37) 2025. Pp. 106-110.
R.M. Shikhiev. Theoretical foundations and evaluation criteria for the effective use of resources in
agriculture. Green Economy and Development March 2026. No. 3, p. 1877-1880.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 ECONOSCITECH INTEGRATION
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
