FORECASTS OF THE NUMBER OF CATTLE GRAZED ON PASTURES IN THE REPUBLIC OF KARAKALPAKSTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21772232Keywords:
pastures, cattle, forecasting, time series, ARMAX model, stationarity, MAPE, Republic of KarakalpakstanAbstract
This article presents forecasts for 2027–2031 of the total cattle population and the number of cattle grazed
on pastures in the Republic of Karakalpakstan. The analysis is based on annual time-series data for 2010–2026 and
employs the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlogram analysis and ARMAX models. A trend ARMAX (0,0,1) specification
was selected for the total cattle population, while a quadratic-trend ARMAX(2,0,1) model was selected for pasture-grazed
cattle. The forecast suggests that by 2031 the total cattle population may reach 1,483,420 heads and the pasture-grazed
cattle population may reach 73,734 heads. The findings can be used to plan pasture load and support evidence-based
livestock-management decisions.
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