FORECASTS OF THE NUMBER OF CATTLE GRAZED ON PASTURES IN THE REPUBLIC OF KARAKALPAKSTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21772232Abstract
This article presents forecasts for 2027–2031 of the total cattle population and the number of cattle grazed
on pastures in the Republic of Karakalpakstan. The analysis is based on annual time-series data for 2010–2026 and
employs the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlogram analysis and ARMAX models. A trend ARMAX (0,0,1) specification
was selected for the total cattle population, while a quadratic-trend ARMAX(2,0,1) model was selected for pasture-grazed
cattle. The forecast suggests that by 2031 the total cattle population may reach 1,483,420 heads and the pasture-grazed
cattle population may reach 73,734 heads. The findings can be used to plan pasture load and support evidence-based
livestock-management decisions.
Keywords
pastures, cattle, forecasting, time series, ARMAX model, stationarity, MAPE, Republic of KarakalpakstanReferences
1. https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/df90e6cf-4178-4361-97d4-5154a9213877/
2. content
3. IPCC. Climate change and land. – Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019. – 180 p.
4. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Qishloq xo‘jaligi vazirligi. Yaylovlardan foydalanish va muhofaza qilish
5. konsepsiyasi. – Toshkent, 2020. – 56 b.
6. Sauhanov J.K. Yaylov resurslarini samarali boshqarish. – Toshkent: Fan, 2018. – 196 b.
7. Resolution of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan RP-120, dated February 8, 2022, “On preparation
8. for and holding of the celebration of the 35th anniversary of the state independence of the Republic of
9. Uzbekistan,” // URL: https://lex.uz/docs/-5858728#-5863384.
10. Behnke R., Scoones I. Rangeland dynamics and pastoral livelihoods. – London: Routledge, 2016. – 295 p.
11. Носков В.В. Пастбища России: состояние и проблемой использования. – Москва: Наука, 2014. – 248
12. стр.
13. Kubentaev S.S. Pasture resources of Kazakhstan. – Almaty: KazAgroInnovation, 2016. – 210 p.
14. Daly H., Farley J. Ecological economics: principles and applications. – Washington, DC: Island Press,
15. –460 p.
16. Pearce D., Turner R. Economics of natural resources and the environment. – London: Harvester
17. Wheatsheaf, 2013. – 378 p.
18. Tietenberg T., Lewis L. Environmental and natural resource economics. – New York: Routledge, 2018. –
19. p.
20. Odum E. Fundamentals of ecology. – Philadelphia: Saunders College Publishing, 2012. – 574 p.
21. UNEP. Global environment outlook: land degradation and desertification. – Nairobi: United Nations
22. Environment Programme, 2019. – 142 p.
23. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and human well-being. – Washington, DC: Island Press,
24. – 155 p.
25. Coase R. The problem of social cost. – Journal of Law and Economics, 1960. – Vol. 3. – B. 1–44.
26. Ostrom E. Governing the commons: the evolution of institutions for collective action. – Cambridge:
27. Cambridge University Press, 2015. – 280 p.
28. Barbier E. Natural resources and economic development. – Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
29. – 412 p.
30. Turner R.K., Pearce D., Bateman I. Environmental economics: an elementary introduction. – Baltimore:
31. Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014. – 340 p.
32. Rees W. Ecological footprints and sustainability. – Ecological Economics, 2016. – № 4. – B. 21–35.
33. Perman R., Ma Y., McGilvray J. Natural resource and environmental economics. – London: Pearson
34. Education, 2017. – 620 p.
35. FAO. Pastoralism and sustainable development in drylands. – Rim: FAO, 2018. – 134 p.
36. IPCC. Climate change and land. – Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019. – 180 p.
37. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Qishloq xo‘jaligi vazirligi. Yaylovlardan foydalanish va muhofaza qilish
38. konsepsiyasi. – Toshkent, 2020. – 56 b.
39. Sauhanov J.K. Yaylov resurslarini samarali boshqarish. – Toshkent: Fan, 2018. – 196 b.
40. Tashmatov R.X. Qishloq xo‘jaligida institutsional rivojlanish. – Toshkent: Iqtisodiyot, 2019. – 224 b.
41. Xudoyberdiyev F.Sh. Yaylov o‘simliklarining biologik xususiyatlari va oziqlanish qiymati // Qishloq xo‘jaligi
42. jurnali. – 2020. – №3. – B. 45–52.
43. Sauxanov J.K., Agrar tarmoqda tashqi samaralarni optimal tartiblashtirish va transaksiya xarajatlarini
44. pasaytirish: muammolar, usullar va modellar (Monografiya) T.: “Lesson Press” MCHJ nashriyoti, 2022. 269
45. b.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 ECONOSCITECH INTEGRATION
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.