IMPROVING THE FINANCING MECHANISM OF LOCALIZATION IN THE METRO INDUSTRY AND ITS SCENARIO-BASED ASSESSMENT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21786270Keywords:
localization financing, metro industry, import substitution, fare policy, public–private partnership, local content requirements, scenario analysis, marginal cost of localizationAbstract
The financing mechanism of localization in the metro industry is examined, and a scenario-based
assessment of its reform is developed. The analysis indicates that the existing model relies almost entirely on centralized
budget allocations, making the pace of localization dependent on the fiscal cycle rather than on industrial
capacity. Three internal financing reserves are quantified. First, the structure of fare-paying passengers shows that
only 27.5% of trips are completed through fully cashless payment instruments, whereas 55.8% still require ticket-
office or kiosk services, creating avoidable labour costs within the operating budget. Second, passenger traffic
is distributed unevenly across metro lines (49.5% on a single line compared with 8.1% on the surface ring line),
suggesting the feasibility of introducing a distance-based fare system. Third, the unit cost of rolling-stock modernization
increased by 54.5%, while the local content level rose by 30 percentage points, corresponding to an average
nominal cost increase of 1.82% for each additional percentage point of local content and 4.63% during the most
recent sub-period. These findings indicate a substantial increase in the marginal cost of deepening localization
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