ECONOMETRIC MODELS FOR EVALUATING INVESTMENT PROJECTS AND ENSURING THE DEBT SUSTAINABILITY OF RAILWAY TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22091799Abstract
This article presents an integrated econometric framework for assessing debt sustainability
and investment efficiency at Uzbekistan Railways Joint Stock Company, which is undergoing structural
transformation under Resolution No. PQ-329 in the context of comprehensive reforms in the railway sector.
The impact of CapEx (capital expenditures), exchange rates, and tariff changes on the financial stability of the
enterprise was analyzed using ARDL and dynamic DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) stress-testing models.
The results show that unsecured external debt under macroeconomic shocks may reduce the DSCR below
the safety threshold. Targeted optimization of operating costs helps mitigate the risk of default. Based on the
obtained results, a strategic policy for capital allocation to railway infrastructure was proposed.
Keywords
railway transport economics, debt service coverage ratio, econometric modeling, investment project evaluation, debt sustainability, capital expenditures, ARDL model, structural decomposition.References
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