GROWTH TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN UZBEKISTAN AND PROBLEMS OF MODERNIZING THE GRID INFRASTRUCTURE

Abstract

This article examines the rapid growth of electricity consumption in Uzbekistan during 2016– 2026, the condition of the national grid infrastructure, and the economic challenges of its modernization. Electricity consumption increased from 45.7 billion kWh in 2016 to approximately 71 billion kWh in 2025, representing growth of more than 55 percent. The study applies dynamic statistical analysis, comparative assessment, infrastructure-loss analysis, and demand forecasting. The findings indicate that ageing network assets, technical losses estimated at 10–15 percent, and insufficient investment constrain supply reliability. By 2030, electricity demand may reach 90–100 billion kWh. The modernization agenda therefore requires the development of high-voltage transmission lines, upgrading 325 substations, modernization of more than 106,000 transformer points, wider smart-grid deployment, and expansion of distributed renewable-energy systems. The paper argues that tariff reform, targeted social protection, international financing and publicprivate partnerships should be coordinated with digital grid modernization to improve energy security and longterm economic sustainability.