AN ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF THE FACTORS INFLUENCING INTERNAL TRADE DEVELOPMENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This study examines the development dynamics, key determinants, and future prospects of internal trade in the Republic of Uzbekistan using statistical and econometric methods. The analysis is based on annual statistical data for 2000–2024. Gross Value Added (GVA) of trade, accommodation, and food service activities is used as the dependent variable, while per capita income, household expenditures, investment in fixed capital, and the Consumer Price Index are considered as explanatory factors. A multiple regression model was developed to quantitatively assess the relationship between internal trade development and the selected socio-economic factors. The results indicate that the model has a relatively high explanatory power, with an R² of 0.7845 and an adjusted R² of 0.7414. The overall statistical significance of the model is confirmed by an F-statistic of 18.206 with a significance level of 0.0000019. Per capita income, household expenditures, and investment in fixed capital have positive and statistically significant effects on GVA, while the Consumer Price Index has a significant negative effect. Time-series and forecasting methods were subsequently applied to estimate the future dynamics of the sector. AR(1) was used to forecast GVA, while ARIMA(1,1,0) models were applied to forecast the main explanatory factors. The findings indicate a moderate but stable growth trajectory for internal trade in the medium term. The results provide an empirical basis for improving trade policy, strengthening statistical monitoring, stimulating investment and consumer demand, and supporting the digital transformation of internal trade in Uzbekistan.