DETERMINANTS OF AIR CARGO DEVELOPMENT AND THE SPACE FOR SMALL-BUSINESS ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN A DOUBLY LANDLOCKED TRANSITION ECONOMY: ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN (2000–2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22891482Abstract
This study examines the macrostructural determinants of air cargo development in Uzbekistan, a doubly landlocked transition economy, and explores their role in shaping entrepreneurial opportunities for small logistics enterprises, including cargo agents, freight forwarders, and express delivery operators. Using annual data for 2000–2025 (n = 26), total air freight volume is modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS) as a function of transit air cargo, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, and the GDP growth rate. Model reliability is assessed through a comprehensive set of diagnostic tests and Newey–West robust estimation. Air cargo volumes are also forecast through 2030 using ARIMA and Holt’s methods. The econometric model explains 93.7% of the variation in air cargo volume (adjusted R² = 0.924; F(4,21) = 77.40; p < 0.001). Transit cargo (β = 0.55) and FDI (β = 0.50) emerge as the principal positive determinants, followed by trade openness, which also exhibits a statistically significant positive effect (p = 0.025). The GDP growth rate has a small but statistically significant negative coefficient (p = 0.022), which is interpreted in the context of reform sequencing. Diagnostic tests reveal no evidence of multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, or significant departures from residual normality, while also indicating structural stability. Both forecasting methods project air cargo volumes of approximately 169–172 thousand tonnes by 2030. The study provides a multivariate econometric assessment of the key determinants of air cargo development in Uzbekistan and interprets them as conditions shaping entrepreneurial opportunities for small businesses in landlocked transition economies.Keywords
air cargo, small-business entrepreneurship, landlocked transition economy, hub-and-spoke model, foreign direct investment, trade openness, UzbekistanReferences
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