ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DYNAMICS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23278717Abstract
This article provides an econometric assessment of the relationship between electricity consumption and industrial output dynamics in Uzbekistan using official annual data for 2010–2025. A chainlinked industrial output index was constructed from the physical volume indices of industrial production published by the National Statistics Committee and compared with both electricity supplied to the industrial sector and total electricity demand. The study employs unit-root tests, log-log elasticity regressions, the ARDL bounds testing approach within an error-correction framework, and Toda–Yamamoto causality tests. The results indicate that industrial output increased 2.35-fold while electricity supplied to the industrial sector remained relatively stable, resulting in a 57.7% decline in electricity intensity per unit of output. The elasticity of total electricity demand with respect to industrial output was estimated at 0.68, while the direction of causality ran from industrial output to electricity consumption. The findings indicate a decoupling between industrial growth and electricity consumption and provide a basis for developing measures aimed at further improving energy efficiency at the regional level.Keywords
electricity consumption, industrial output, ARDL model, cointegration, Toda-Yamamoto causality, decoupling, energy efficiency, Khorezm RegionReferences
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