A DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS OF INFLATION TARGETING AND MONETARY POLICY OUTCOMES IN UZBEKISTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23402943Abstract
This article presents a descriptive assessment of monetary policy in Uzbekistan based on year-end data for 2017–2025 and observations available through August 2026. The analysis distinguishes between the pre-inflation-targeting period (2017–2019) and the inflation-targeting framework introduced inKeywords
inflation targeting, monetary policy, policy rate, transmission mechanism, inflation expectations, dollarization, UzbekistanReferences
1. Ball, L., & Sheridan, N. (2005). Does inflation targeting matter? / L. Ball, N. Sheridan. The Inflation-Targeting Debate / ed. by B. S. Bernanke, M. Woodford, 249–282.
2. Barro, R. J., & Gordon, D. B. (1983). A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model / R. J. Barro, D. B. Gordon. Journal of Political Economy, 91(4), 589–610.
3. Bernanke, B. S., Laubach, T., Mishkin, F. S., & Posen, A. S. (1999). Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience / B. S. Bernanke, T. Laubach, F. S. Mishkin, A. S. Posen. Princeton University Press.
4. Bernanke, B. S., & Mishkin, F. S. (1997). Inflation targeting: A new framework for monetary policy? / B. S. Bernanke, F. S. Mishkin. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(2), 97–116.
5. Calvo, G. A., & Reinhart, C. M. (2002). Fear of floating / G. A. Calvo, C. M. Reinhart. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2), 379–408.
6. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Annual, year-to-date and monthly inflation indicators [Electronic resource]. – URL: https://cbu.uz/uz/monetary-policy/annual-inflation/indicators/ (accessed: 08.10.2026).
7. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Decision to maintain the policy rate at 14% [Electronic resource]. – 16 September 2026. – URL: https://cbu.uz/uz/monetary-policy/publications/press-releases/4540132/ (accessed: 08.10.2026).
8. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Household inflation expectations and perceived inflation (August 2026): Publication page for the survey results [Electronic resource]. – 2026. – URL: https://cbu.uz/ uz/monetary-policy/inflationary-expectations/survey-results/4557445/ (accessed: 08.10.2026).
9. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Monetary policy objectives and principles [Electronic resource]. – URL: https://cbu.uz/uz/monetary-policy/concept/ (accessed: 08.10.2026).
10. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Monetary policy review for the fourth quarter of 2017 [Electronic resource]. – 7 February 2018. – URL: https://cbu.uz/ru/press_center/reviews/38766/ (accessed: 08.10.2026).
11. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Weighted average interest rates on deposits for August 2026 [Electronic resource]. – URL: https://www.cbu.uz/ (accessed: 08.10.2026).
12. Central Bank of Uzbekistan. Decision to raise the policy rate to 14% [Electronic resource]. – 20 March 2025. – URL: https://cbu.uz/en/press_center/releases/2249394/ (accessed: 08.10.2026).
13. Central Bank of Uzbekistan. Decision to raise the policy rate to 17% [Electronic resource]. – 17 March 2022. – URL: https://cbu.uz/en/press_center/releases/614459/ (accessed: 08.10.2026).
14. Central Bank of Uzbekistan. Statistical Bulletin, September 2025 [Electronic resource]. – 2025. – URL: September-2025.pdf (accessed: 08.10.2026).
15. Clarida, R., Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory / R. Clarida, J. Galí, M. Gertler. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147–180.
16. Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kumar, S. (2018). How do firms form their expectations? New survey evidence / O. Coibion, Y. Gorodnichenko, S. Kumar. American Economic Review, 108(9), 2671–2713.
17. D’Acunto, F., Malmendier, U., Ospina, J., & Weber, M. (2021). Exposure to grocery prices and inflation expectations / F. D’Acunto, U. Malmendier, J. Ospina, M. Weber. Journal of Political Economy, 129(5), 1615–1639.
18. Gonçalves, C. E. S., & Salles, J. M. (2008). Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say? / C. E. S. Gonçalves, J. M. Salles. Journal of Development Economics, 85(1), 312–318.
19. Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C. (1977). Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans / F. E. Kydland, E. C. Prescott. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 473–491.
20. Levy Yeyati E. Financial dollarization: Evaluating the consequences / E. Levy Yeyati. (2006). Economic Policy, 21(45), 61–118.
21. Lin, S., & Ye, H. (2009). Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries? / S. Lin, H. Ye. Journal of Development Economics, 89(1), 118–123.
22. Mishkin, F. S. (2004). Can inflation targeting work in emerging market countries? / F. S. Mishkin.
23. Mishra, P., Montiel, P. J., & Spilimbergo, A. (2012). Monetary transmission in low-income countries: Effectiveness and policy implications / P. Mishra, P. J. Montiel, A. Spilimbergo. IMF Economic Review, 60(2), 270–302.
24. Spot. Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan reach a new low, according to the Central Bank [Electronic resource]. – 21 September 2026. – URL: https://www.spot.uz/oz/2026/09/21/inflation-expectations/ (accessed: 08.10.2026).
25. Svensson, L. E. O. (1997). Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets / L. E. O. Svensson. European Economic Review, 41(6), 1111–1146.
26. Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice / J. B. Taylor. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195–214.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 ECONOSCITECH INTEGRATION
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.