DIAGNOSIS-BASED TARGETING OF SUPPORT FOR CREATIVE ECONOMY ENTITIES: AN INDEX-BASED ALLOCATION MECHANISM (EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN)

Abstract

Public support for creative enterprises in Uzbekistan is currently allocated primarily on the basis of regional location and application-based criteria, with opportunities to strengthen its alignment with the specific needs of individual businesses. Based on a survey of 149 creative enterprises, the analysis found no statistically significant association between receiving public support and business income, while enterprises located in Tashkent had 7.85 times the odds of receiving support. This study proposes a three-stage, diagnosis-based mechanism for allocating public support. First, each enterprise is assessed using the Creative Economy Index to identify its weakest dimension: institutional environment, economic performance, or export orientation. Second, an appropriate form of support is assigned according to the identified area of need. Third, priority is given to enterprises for which support is expected to generate the greatest improvement in the index. With the number of recipients held constant at 34, the proposed mechanism increases the aggregate expected index gain from 44.02 to 78.92 points, representing a 1.79-fold improvement. It also produces a more geographically balanced allocation, reducing the number of recipients in Tashkent from 15 to 5 and increasing the number in Bukhara Region from 1 to 9. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the relative advantage remains within the range of 1.5–1.9 across alternative reference levels. These findings represent model-based estimates derived from survey data rather than empirically observed causal effects. Accordingly, a two-year pilot programme in Bukhara Region, incorporating a comparison group, is proposed to evaluate the practical effectiveness of the allocation mechanism.