REGIONAL DISPARITIES IN UZBEKISTAN’S ECONOMY: MEASURING INEQUALITY AND CONVERGENCE IN GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA IN 2024-2025

Abstract

Regional disparities are an important consideration within the Uzbekistan-2030 Strategy, yet they are rarely assessed using standard measures of inequality and convergence. This study examines the spatial distribution of gross regional product (GRP) per capita across Uzbekistan’s 14 territorial units in 2024-2025, using official data published by the National Statistics Committee. The analysis employs the population-weighted coefficient of variation, Gini and Theil indices, rank correlations with sectoral structure, and a cross-sectional beta-convergence regression. In 2025, GRP per capita ranged from 22.2 million soums in Surkhandarya to 152.2 million soums in Navoi, representing a ratio of 6.85, compared with 6.19 in 2024. Only three territories exceeded the national average of 48.8 million soums. Navoi and Tashkent city accounted for 28.9% of GDP while representing approximately 11.2% of the population. All measures of dispersion increased slightly between 2024 and 2025. However, excluding these two economic centres reveals a relatively compact and stable distribution across the remaining twelve territories, with population-weighted coefficients of variation of 0.291 and 0.298, respectively, and no statistically significant relationship between initial income and real growth (p = 0.437). The findings indicate a two-pole spatial structure, driven by industrial activity in Navoi and servicesector agglomeration in Tashkent city, rather than widespread regional divergence. Accordingly, monitoring regional inequality should incorporate indicators calculated both with and without these economically distinctive territories. The analysis is limited to two years of preliminary data.