DIGITAL SKILLS AND LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS BASED ON AN INTEGRATED STATISTICAL MODEL

Abstract

The article presents a medium-term scenario forecast of labour market and demographic indicators of the
Republic of Karakalpakstan for 2026–2030. The study is based on a two-stage approach that integrates C.C.Holt’s twoparameter
exponential smoothing method with Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). At the first stage, a baseline forecast
is constructed using the Holt method; at the second stage, it is adjusted on the basis of multivariate canonical relationships
between demographic-digital factors and labour market indicators. The forecasting accuracy of the model corresponds
to international standards and has been empirically validated through backtesting and leave-one-out cross-validation
procedures. Three scenarios — pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic — have been developed, with the differences
between them decomposed into contributing factors using the Laspeyres-Paasche-Fisher index decomposition. The
findings empirically substantiate the priority role of digital skills development and labour migration management policies
for the region.