ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF FAMILY ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT IN THE TOURISM SECTOR: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20689408Keywords:
family entrepreneurship; tourism economy; econometric modelling; correlation–regression analysis; investment elasticity; forecasting; Uzbekistan.Abstract
This paper develops a quantitative framework for explaining and forecasting the growth of family-run enterprises operating in Uzbekistan’s tourism sector. Drawing on official statistical data covering the period 2011–2025, nine potential socio-economic determinants were screened through pairwise correlation analysis, after which a parsimonious log-linear regression model was estimated using the ordinary least squares method. The results indicate that investment directed to the tourism sector is the leading factor influencing the development of family businesses: a one per cent increase in sectoral investment is associated with an approximately 0.39 per cent increase in the number of family enterprises. The model explains about 94 per cent of the observed variation. Based on the estimated elasticity, the scenario forecast suggests that the number of family tourism enterprises may reach approximately 34.8 thousand units by 2030. The findings provide an empirical basis for improving credit, infrastructure, and training programmes aimed at supporting family entrepreneurs in tourism.This paper develops a quantitative framework for explaining and forecasting the growth offamily-run enterprises operating in Uzbekistan’s tourism sector. Drawing on official statistical data covering the
period 2011–2025, nine potential socio-economic determinants were screened through pairwise correlation
analysis, after which a parsimonious log-linear regression model was estimated using the ordinary least squares
method. The results indicate that investment directed to the tourism sector is the leading factor influencing
the development of family businesses: a one per cent increase in sectoral investment is associated with an
approximately 0.39 per cent increase in the number of family enterprises. The model explains about 94 per cent
of the observed variation. Based on the estimated elasticity, the scenario forecast suggests that the number
of family tourism enterprises may reach approximately 34.8 thousand units by 2030. The findings provide
an empirical basis for improving credit, infrastructure, and training programmes aimed at supporting family
entrepreneurs in tourism.
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