PROSPECTS FOR CHANGING THE VOLUME OF GRAPE CULTIVATION DUE TO THE USE OF INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE VITICULTURE COMPLEX
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20721545Keywords:
export potential, diversification, systems approach, correlation and regression analysis, statistical calculation, empirical analysis, hypothesis, dependent and independent variables, (OLS) model, trend model, constant influence model, coefficient of determination, variance.Abstract
In the context of global climate change, water resource scarcity, and demographic growth, the
sustainable development of the viticulture industry and ensuring food security are among the most important
economic tasks. The article analyzes the influence of factors such as vineyard area, harvested vineyard area,
precipitation, average temperature, and population size on the volume of grape cultivation through econometric
modeling. Correlation-regression analysis results provide forecast indicators for strategic industry planning
based on a quantitative assessment of the impact of crop area growth, climatic factors, and demographic
changes on production prospects. Taking into account the factors affecting the volume of grape production
in the viticulture complex of Uzbekistan, in particular the area of vineyards that have begun to bear fruit, the
amount of precipitation, the average annual temperature and the dynamics of the population, the forecast
parameters of the volume of grape production until 2030 have been developed.
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