ENHANCING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INFLOWS IN THE POST-CRISIS ERA: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

The global economic landscape has been profoundly altered by successive post-crisis realities,
compelling transition economies to reassess their strategies for attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This
paper investigates the macroeconomic determinants of FDI inflows into Uzbekistan from 2010 to 2025, a period
encompassing major domestic economic liberalization and global external shocks. Utilizing an Ordinary Least
Squares (OLS) econometric model, the study analyzes the impact of GDP growth, inflation, trade openness,
and exchange rate stability on FDI as a percentage of GDP. The empirical findings reveal that while market size
and trade openness positively drive investment, inflationary pressures and exchange rate volatility serve as
significant deterrents. The paper concludes with targeted policy recommendations aligned with the “Uzbekistan
— 2030” strategy, approved by the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. UP-21 dated
February 16, 2026, “On additional measures for the consistent continuation and transition to a new stage of
reforms within the priority areas of the country’s development until 2030” [1], emphasizing institutional quality,
privatization, and green energy investments to maximize FDI in the post-crisis period.