ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON THE COBBDOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION: A CASE STUDY OF SURXONDARYA REGION

Abstract

This study examines the key driving factors of economic growth in the Surxondaryo region using
econometric modelling based on the classical Cobb-Douglas production function. To address issues related to
multicollinearity and non-stationarity in the raw data, a restricted intensive form of the model, where α + β = 1,
was constructed using regional statistical data for the period 2010–2025.
The empirical results demonstrate high statistical significance, with an adjusted R-squared of 0.961 and
an F-statistic of 379.63, confirming the reliability of the model. The estimated capital elasticity coefficient (α)
is 0.6967, while the labour elasticity coefficient (β) is 0.3033. This indicates that a 1% increase in capital
investment leads to an approximately 0.70% increase in regional output, whereas a 1% increase in labour
resources results in only 0.30% growth.
The findings suggest that economic growth in Surxondaryo is predominantly capital-intensive and is largely
driven by investment inflows. At the same time, the marginal productivity of labour remains relatively low due to
an oversupply of the workforce in the region.