DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADAPTIVE FIBONACCI STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS MODEL FOR GOLD TRADING: EVIDENCE FROM THE XAU/USD MARKET
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20919601Keywords:
gold trading, XAU/USD, technical analysis, adaptive Fibonacci levels, market structure, trading strategy, risk management.Abstract
The increasing volatility and complexity of global financial markets have strengthened
the importance of technical analysis methods for identifying profitable trading opportunities and managing
investment risks. Gold (XAU/USD), one of the most actively traded safe-haven assets, remains a key instrument
for investors seeking portfolio protection and stable returns under uncertain economic conditions. Although
Fibonacci retracement and extension levels are widely applied in technical analysis, their effectiveness is often
constrained by changing market volatility, structural shifts, and false breakout signals.
This study develops an adaptive Fibonacci structural analysis model aimed at improving trend identification,
entry confirmation, and risk-reward optimization in gold trading. The proposed framework integrates classical
Fibonacci principles with structural market analysis based on Higher Highs (HH), Higher Lows (HL), Lower
Highs (LH), and Lower Lows (LL), while incorporating volatility-adjusted calibration mechanisms. The model
introduces a transformed system of adaptive Fibonacci levels and evaluates its applicability within the XAU/
USD market.
The study employs historical gold price data and applies a structural analytical framework to identify
market impulses, corrective phases, and trend reversal points. The findings indicate that the adaptive Fibonacci
model improves signal reliability, enhances trend-confirmation accuracy, and supports more efficient capital
management compared with conventional Fibonacci-based approaches.
The research contributes to the literature by integrating structural market analysis, adaptive Fibonacci
modeling, and risk-adjusted decision-making into a unified analytical framework for gold trading.
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