MECHANISMS FOR ENHANCING THE EXPORT POTENTIAL OF SMALL BUSINESSES: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21099526Abstract
Expanding the export potential of small businesses is a strategic priority of Uzbekistan’s SME
Development Strategy for 2025–2030, which aims to increase SME exports to more than USD 20 billion by
2030. This study identifies and quantifies the principal mechanisms shaping the export performance of small
businesses using annual data for 2010–2024 and a log-linear, constant-elasticity regression framework. The
export financing mechanism, proxied by the volume of credit extended to small businesses, is found to be the
most robust driver: a 1% increase in financing is associated with a 0.45% increase in small-business export
volume (p < 0.01). The exchange-rate mechanism, reflecting price competitiveness, is statistically insignificant,
suggesting that exports by small businesses in Uzbekistan have been driven more by access to finance,
productive capacity, and trade liberalization than by relative price effects. The paper derives policy mechanisms
for strengthening SME export financing and productive capacity.
Keywords
small businesses, export potential, export financing, bank credit, exchange rate, competitiveness, Uzbekistan, regression analysis, elasticity.References
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