STATISTICAL MODEL FOR DETERMINING SAMPLE SIZE IN THE AUDIT OF BUDGETARY ORGANIZATIONS BASED ON AUDIT RISK, MATERIALITY, AND EXPECTED MISSTATEMENT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21412329Keywords:
sample size, statistical model, audit risk, materiality, expected misstatement, monetary unit sampling, Poisson distribution, confidence factor, budgetary organization, ISA 530.Abstract
This article presents a statistical and mathematical model for determining sample size in audits
of budgetary organizations by establishing the interrelationship among audit risk, materiality, and expected
misstatement. The research problem is that, in practice, sample size is often determined using a fixedpercentage
approach without adequately considering audit risk, materiality, and expected misstatement. The
study employs monetary unit sampling methodology, the Poisson distribution, hypothetical modelling, and
sensitivity analysis. As a result, a model was developed that systematically accounts for expected misstatement
and applies differentiated parameters across risk zones. The author’s scientific contribution lies in adapting the
model to the specific characteristics of the budgetary sector and integrating it with a risk-based stratification
methodology.
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